Fig. 3

Best-fit modelling approach (left) vs. average stress state with uncertainty quantification approach (right) of geomechanical–numerical modelling. In a best-fit approach the difference between the modelled and observed stress magnitudes is minimised. The uncertainty quantification approach combines each \(\text{S}_\text {hmin}\) with each \(\text{S}_\text {Hmax}\) magnitude and thus generates several model scenarios that are each adjusted to fit an individual pair of calibration stress data records. From all of these model scenarios, the average and its standard deviation of the full stress tensor is computed at each node throughout the model volume